THE ABSENCE OF AIR-TO-GROUND RADIO REPORTS FROM AMELIA EARHART AFTER 2013GMT THE ELGEN LONG THEORY - VERSES THE TIGHAR THEORY - HOW IT MIGHT HAVE HAPPENED A FICTIONAL RADIO STORY BASED ON A HISTORICAL EVENT Now, focus on the last transmission - 2013GMT - Earhart to Itasca, “WE ARE ON THE LINE OF POSITION 157- 337, WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE. WE WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE ON 6210 KCS. WAIT LISTENING ON 6210 KCS. WE ARE RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH." Please note the curious use of the word "WAIT". What distracted Earhart at this point in time and prompted her to use the word "WAIT"? ,,,,,,,,, Imagine the shock, when the engines began to sputter, for lack of fuel. Facing a dead stick landing on water, Earhart was overwhelmed with flying. Quickly, she switched to another (empty) fuel tank, hoping to breathe life into the dying engines. Fighting the controls, she didn't have time to put out a distress call on the radio. Water landings, especially on a rolling sea, are seldom survivable.() Anyway, what was the point, because on this World circling trip, Earhart, (probably) didn't have a life raft in order to save weight for more gas. Perhaps the end was fast and merciful with a hard impact. No further transmissions were heard, which tends to strengthen the Elgen Long theory. Simple and logical, in light of the radio call evidence and lack of, the Elgen Long theory is convincing too. It is here that the Long theory ends and the Tighar theory begins. Tighar would have us believe that Earhart flew along, fully in control, and didn't bother making any more radio reports to her support ship and finally she found Gardner Island where she landed. With all due respect, the disturbing lack of radio reports, especially during this critical period of the flight, represents the weakest part of the Tighar theory. There should have been a flood of radio calls when that fuel gauge bobbled on E. Did Earhart give up on finding Howland Island, where her only support ship was stationed, and then she flew off, straight down the LOP toward Gardner Island? Or was she flying down the LOP in the more logical ladder shaped, or "S" shaped, search pattern which would have burned more fuel, but also would have increased the odds of finding Howland? She certainly had a strong incentive to land at Howland as planned. What was she thinking?)( The answers to these questions we will never know, but for certain,,,, her radio silence after 2013GMT,,,, spans across time,,,, loud and clear !! Meanwhile on the Itasca, the crowded Radio Shack was like an oven from the heat of the big vacuum tube receivers. )(Did Earhart guard against making LOST or DISTRESS related radio reports since she knew that Press Reporters were in the Radio Shack listening to her? When not transmitting to Earhart, the radiomen strained against the radio noise as they listened to hear signals from her. No doubt, even more focused now, as they felt like they had failed on their mission, to talk Earhart safely down to a landing on Howland. ()Specially modified, this Electra had extra fuel tanks. With twin engines and empty fuel tanks, the center of gravity was forward on the Electra and most likely it flipped upside down as it contacted the ocean. The extensive air and sea search of July 1937 failed to reveal any floating debris or oil slick. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| What happened to Amelia Earhart is one of the great aviation mysteries and the study of her disappearance is both intriguing and addictive for an investigator. There are a number of theories, but basically, the most popular are polarized by two schools of thought. Some think, after making her last radio call, that she ran out of gas and crashed into the sea, end of story. This is the climax of the Elgen Long theory. But the Tighar Group believes, after missing Howland Island, this being her prearranged refueling stop, that she in effect, changed her flight plan and flew +OR- 350 miles to the southeast on a sun Line-Of-Position (LOP) that intersected Gardner Island as it was called in 1937.(1) (SEE MAP) There she made a crash landing on a coral reef and survived for a time before dying of exposure. The assumption is that Earhart piloted her Lockheed Electra to a survivable landing on the rough surface and it came to rest, intact and above water, thereby, permitting the right engine to run and charge the radio battery. Early on from Gardner Island, that is before aircraft fuel was exhausted, she supposedly made a number of radio calls that were intercepted by professional and amateur stations. Also, there were Radio Direction Finding plots which pointed near to her position on the island. Although it should be noted, researching and reaching back across so many years, there seems to be an degree of confusion about the authenticity of the post flight radio calls and therefore, they can only be given a measured amount of credibility at best. The very springboard of the Tighar theory is based on there having been post flight radio signals from the island. However, in stronger support of the Tighar Group, they have recovered some tantalizing artifacts from the island that seem to support the landing theory. Dedicated and focused on success, the Tighar Group uses the scientific method to qualify their findings. Hats off to the Tighar Group. I sincerely hope the Tighar theory proves to be correct and they discover the final resting place of Amelia Earhart and her navigator Fred Noonan. Visit the Tighar.org web page for details on their exhaustive research and archives. I enjoy the mix of radio / navigation and aviation history. I must admit, Tighar wins me over to their theory every time I visit their web page. But when I have quiet time,, my mind always wonders back,, and resets on the same nagging question,, that being, why Earhart radio calls stopped so abruptly? As a radio enthusiast, it is fascinating to read about the final hours of the Earhart flight and the radio problems she had. It is from the angle of radio operating, and specifically the amount of radio chatter, or lack of, that I wish to express my view on the Earhart mystery. Please understand, my opinion is not based on evidence, but on the very obvious, lack of evidence. Furthermore, my opinion is tempered by what I think would be the common sense human response to being lost over the ocean and low on fuel. In other words, how the typical human would react when they crossed the mental threshold, from being in control, to being out of control, of a life or death situation. Consider this, if radio was your only link to the world, your only lifeline, then the typical human would use it to fullest extent, meaning, one radio call, after another, after another, and at frequent intervals.$ This flurry of radio activity didn't happen near the end of the Earhart flight, unless the radiomen on the USCG Itasca support ship missed ALL her calls,)( or they couldn't hear her because of HF(2) propagation, or if she, was just frozen by fear and didn't have the presence of mind to talk on the radio. Earhart was a tough chick, a cool character, to have taken on a round the world flight and I don't think she was ever totally incapacitated by fear. But why, why, during her supposedly long diversion to Gardner Island, did she totally fail to radio updates on her heading and her intentions? That is my Question? At this point we will review two key transmissions made by Amelia Earhart to the Coast Guard Cutter Itasca.--- |
| THE AMELIA EARHART MYSTERY VIEWED FROM THE ANGLE OF RADIO OPERATIONS A FICTIONAL RADIO STORY AND A PERSONAL VIEWPOINT^^ - BASED ON A HISTORICAL EVENT JANUARY 7, 2011 - BY: AARON GEORGE BAILEY- WA5HRC Some thoughts, some imagination, the viewpoint /content herein is just my opinion. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- FROM THE RADIO LOG OF THE USCG ITASCA*^ -- AT 1912 GMT - EARHART RADIOS ITASCA - "KHAQQ CALLING ITASCA WE MUST BE ON YOU BUT CANNOT SEE YOU BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW BEEN UNABLE REACH YOU BY RADIO WE ARE FLYING AT ALTITUDE 1000 FEET." AT 2013GMT - 61 MINUTES AFTER THE ABOVE TRANSMISSION - EARHART RADIOS ITASCA - “WE ARE ON THE LINE OF POSITION 157-337, WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE. WE WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE ON 6210 KCS. WAIT LISTENING ON 6210 KCS. WE ARE RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH." *^reference below http://searchforamelia.org/radio-call-log -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
THE ABSENCE OF AIR-TO-GROUND RADIO REPORTS FROM AMELIA EARHART AFTER 2013GMT THE TIGHAR THEORY - HOW IT MIGHT HAVE HAPPENED + A HYPOTHETICAL SET OF CONDITIONS - MAKING THE LACK OF RADIO REPORTS FIT THE TIGHAR THEORY A FICTIONAL RADIO STORY BASED ON A HISTORICAL EVENT I know the following will be difficult to accept for some researchers. But there is a hypothetical set of conditions that better fit the lack of radio calls and the landing on Gardner Island. That is, if Earhart arrived at the LOP significantly south of Howland Island.(MAP) Searching for a time, she then turned southeast down the LOP and stumbled across Gardner Island soon after the last 2013GMT radio call. Did the curious reference to "WAIT" mark the time when she first caught sight of Gardner Island? Imagine, at first Earhart felt a rush of relief as she thought it was Howland Island. Or maybe at this point any land was a welcome sight and she just wanted to land, even on a rough coral reef. On the landing roll, Earhart splashed through pools of sea water and the antenna insulators became coated with salt spray which would have caused temporary antenna leakage, thus, reducing the effective power of any transmitted radio signals at that time. As the Electra rolled to a stop, a few brief radio calls were made, but it was "No Joy" again, on contacting the Itasca. Earhart was totally disgusted with her radio because it didn't seem to work on this leg of the trip. Enough already with that damn radio, as she quickly killed her engines to save the precious gas remaining. Exhausted, after nearly a full day of hard flying, she just wanted to get out and walk on solid ground, and probably, relieve personal urges. Further radio calls were put off for now. Among her mix of feelings, Earhart had to shuffle through her thoughts as she wondered what to tell the Press about landing on the wrong island. Aside from setting an aviation record, this flight was about self promotion and marketing, as she wanted to be remembered as the greatest female aviator of all time. After almost flying around the world, she now had a blemished record as a wrong way pilot and faced a public relations nightmare. Earhart knew she could ride over her latest mistake because America loved her. After all, she was an all American Hero and sweetheart too. But right now she faced off with a less forgiving foe, mother nature, as Earhart was forced to pull more inner strength out of herself to cope with being marooned on a deserted island. Facing her greatest challenge ever, the struggle would be for basic survival. The goofy acting radio in the Electra was her only hope of letting rescue forces know that she was still alive and located so far off target. A walk around of the Electra revealed that the receiving antenna was missing. Unknown to her during the flight, actually it had been ripped away on takeoff from the bumpy dirt runway at Lae, New Guinea.^ "So that's why I couldn't read the Itasca very well", she reasoned, and the good news, "Perhaps the transmitter is working OK because it uses a different antenna." The remaining gas in the Electra had to be rationed carefully because when it was depleted, the radio battery would die and so would her link to the civilized world. Now another problem, as the pounding surf appeared to be moving closer to the Electra. After sizing up her situation, and options, Earhart once again climbed into her Electra and powered up the shortwave radio by running the right side engine.^ The transmitting antenna on the Electra, was only a few feet off the ground, and not as effective as it had been at high altitude. With only 50 watts of power, her radio emitted feeble transmissions. Earhart radioed out by voice mainly, and she sometimes used the push-to-talk button on the microphone to send out crude morse code.(3) The Electra came equipped with a telegraph (code) key* but Earhart threw it away to save weight, as went the trailing wire antenna reel too.^ How tragic, because that long trailing wire antenna could have enhanced radio performance greatly.# At the time, morse code (3) was the favored mode of radio because it could be heard at great distance through bad atmospherics when AM voice couldn't be understood.(4) Earhart always hated morse code and she never mastered it to the level of being competent. The broken, cryptic code that she sent out was difficult to understand. Alas, and so began the famous post flight signals to the world,,, the faint whispers for help,,,, that skipped out of the distant Pacific,,,,,, and haunt us till this day.(2) |
(1) LOP - LOP NAVIGATION- TERM MEANING "LINE-OF-POSTION" - IN THE LAST TRANSMISSION, AMELIA EARHART WAS REFERRING TO
HER LOP AS 157-337 IN COMPASS DEGREES. NOTE-The LOP 157-337 represents a STRAIGHT LINE across a compass rose (or face).
(2) "skipped"-MEANING "SKIP" in radio jargon + "SHORTWAVE"or "SW" - DEFINED AS - a band of frequencies between 3 and 30 MHz.
The main characteristic of these frequencies is their ability to "SKIP" off the ionosphere and propagate over long distances, making
possible world-wide communications when atmospheric conditions are good. SHORTWAVE is also called HF or High Frequency
(3) MORSE CODE - An early form of communication using a system of dots and dashes, short and long sounds, which represent the
letters of the alphabet, numbers and punctuation marks. *A Telegraph Key switches a radio transmitter on/off to make Morse Code.
(4) AM - Amplitude Modulation - To vary the amplitude of a radio carrier wave in accordance with sound, voice, or music.
# A bad decision by Earhart that most likely led to her untimely death, possibly as a castaway on Gardner Island. The average
schoolboy from that era would have had a better understanding and working knowledge of radio and would not have removed the
250 foot trailing wire antenna. Using this antenna, Earhart should have broadcast on 500kc so Radio Direction Finding stations could
get a fix on her position. The nature of the frequencies around 500kc is better suited for RDF or Radio Direction Finding work.
Earhart's Electra- the radio frequencies for Transmit and Receive - 500kc, 3105kc, 6210kc -NOTE- the last two are harmonic related.^
$ April 1912- While taking on sea water and sinking by the bow, Titanic radioman Jack Phillips remained at his station and continued
to pound out SOS and position reports to near the end. FOR ADDITIONAL INFO CLICK AND SCROLL DOWN TO- *TITANIC SUNSET
^ -reference TIGHAR.ORG
HER LOP AS 157-337 IN COMPASS DEGREES. NOTE-The LOP 157-337 represents a STRAIGHT LINE across a compass rose (or face).
(2) "skipped"-MEANING "SKIP" in radio jargon + "SHORTWAVE"or "SW" - DEFINED AS - a band of frequencies between 3 and 30 MHz.
The main characteristic of these frequencies is their ability to "SKIP" off the ionosphere and propagate over long distances, making
possible world-wide communications when atmospheric conditions are good. SHORTWAVE is also called HF or High Frequency
(3) MORSE CODE - An early form of communication using a system of dots and dashes, short and long sounds, which represent the
letters of the alphabet, numbers and punctuation marks. *A Telegraph Key switches a radio transmitter on/off to make Morse Code.
(4) AM - Amplitude Modulation - To vary the amplitude of a radio carrier wave in accordance with sound, voice, or music.
# A bad decision by Earhart that most likely led to her untimely death, possibly as a castaway on Gardner Island. The average
schoolboy from that era would have had a better understanding and working knowledge of radio and would not have removed the
250 foot trailing wire antenna. Using this antenna, Earhart should have broadcast on 500kc so Radio Direction Finding stations could
get a fix on her position. The nature of the frequencies around 500kc is better suited for RDF or Radio Direction Finding work.
Earhart's Electra- the radio frequencies for Transmit and Receive - 500kc, 3105kc, 6210kc -NOTE- the last two are harmonic related.^
$ April 1912- While taking on sea water and sinking by the bow, Titanic radioman Jack Phillips remained at his station and continued
to pound out SOS and position reports to near the end. FOR ADDITIONAL INFO CLICK AND SCROLL DOWN TO- *TITANIC SUNSET
^ -reference TIGHAR.ORG
^^You see, my point is, I think Earhart was radically off the planned route, south of Howland Island, and nearer to Gardner Island OR NIKUmaroro today.
When factoring in the abrupt end of radio reports, my view makes that loose end come together better. This is my pet theory.
Reference the Long Theory- Yes, Earhart did go down soon after the 2013GMT radio call, to land on Gardner Island, not to crash into the sea.
Reference the Tighar theory- Of coarse there wasn't any radio calls after 2013GMT because she landed on Gardner Island soon after that radio report.
Earhart was walking about, surveying the area, looking for damage to her plane and just recovering from the long flight.
Oh, I know I have strained the limits of acceptability, but what we have now is sort of a compromise, and the uncomfortable marriage of two dominating
and opposing theories. People love a mystery, because it's like bubble-gum for the brain. The Earhart mystery is like putting together a USED box
puzzle with parts that are missing. There's a puzzle piece for every investigator, professional & amateur, to grab hold of, and make a pet theory about,
myself included. I think this is the appeal of the Earhart mystery because it's a big free for all mystery, or Theory-fest, that everyone can take part in.
Only when the Electra is found, will the Theory-fest play out. Really, the only hard evidence to work with is the Earhart radio reports as they were heard
in the Radio Shack of the Itasca. Scant, and sometimes confusing as these signals were.
When factoring in the abrupt end of radio reports, my view makes that loose end come together better. This is my pet theory.
Reference the Long Theory- Yes, Earhart did go down soon after the 2013GMT radio call, to land on Gardner Island, not to crash into the sea.
Reference the Tighar theory- Of coarse there wasn't any radio calls after 2013GMT because she landed on Gardner Island soon after that radio report.
Earhart was walking about, surveying the area, looking for damage to her plane and just recovering from the long flight.
Oh, I know I have strained the limits of acceptability, but what we have now is sort of a compromise, and the uncomfortable marriage of two dominating
and opposing theories. People love a mystery, because it's like bubble-gum for the brain. The Earhart mystery is like putting together a USED box
puzzle with parts that are missing. There's a puzzle piece for every investigator, professional & amateur, to grab hold of, and make a pet theory about,
myself included. I think this is the appeal of the Earhart mystery because it's a big free for all mystery, or Theory-fest, that everyone can take part in.
Only when the Electra is found, will the Theory-fest play out. Really, the only hard evidence to work with is the Earhart radio reports as they were heard
in the Radio Shack of the Itasca. Scant, and sometimes confusing as these signals were.
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